Scientific Method

The Scientific Method is a rigorous, time tested process for determining the truth of any proposition. The proposition is known as a hypothesis. The method of testing is experimentation. The process has these simple but powerful steps:

1. Observe a phenomenon that has no good explanation.
2. Formulate a hypothesis.
3. Design an experiment(s) to test the hypothesis.
4. Perform the experiment(s).
5. Accept, reject, or modify the hypothesis.

The Scientific Method's great claim to fame is it is the only known method for producing reliable new cause and effect knowledge. It thus forms the entire foundation of science and all that depends on science, which for modern civilization is all major advances in the last three centuries.

Sadly, most environmental organizations have not been able to share in these advances because they do not practice the Scientific Method in their problem solving process. They do at the tactical level, such as in studies, proper practices research, and so on. But they do not practice the Scientific Method at the overall problem solving process level. This strategic blunder causes them to depend on one untested hypothesis after another, such as let's perform this research on alternative energy, or let's do this study, or let's plan this series of television shows, or let's make this proposal. But where is the analysis and proof that those actions will contribute to substantial solution of the problem in a predictable, unified, systematic manner?

Well, there is no analysis and there is no proof. The inevitable result is that actions like these have not lead to much of anything for the last 30 years, other than the sound of millions of classic activists spinning their wheels and grinding their teeth harder and harder, as one failure after another forces them to try the same thing over and over, harder and harder and harder.

For more on the Scientific Method, see the website that is dedicated to the future of human evolution.

 

Dueling Loops Paper

The most popular page on the site by a factor of 3. This paper presents a simple model showing why activists have been unable to solve the sustainability problem, and an alternative solution strategy based on high leverage points.

The Phenomenon of Change Resistance

This is the key concept that starts people thwinking, and causes them to explore the rest of the site. The concept is subtle, but has the potential to change the sustainability problem from insolvable to solvable.

The Powell Memo

The most eye popping short read (7 pages) on the site, if you have never heard about it. The memo was written in 1971.

Dueling Loops Videos

These average 8 minutes. They give a quick introduction to the Dueling Loops model and how it explains the tremendous change resistance to solving the sustainability problem.

 

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