Model Crisis

Model crisis is the third step in the Kuhn Cycle. It occurs when a model has drifted so far it is no longer capable of providing the guidance expected of it. This causes a crisis, because now the model's users have nothing on which to base rational decisions, and so must either guess or do nothing instead. The crisis persists until someone or a group boldly begins the search for a new model to replace the only one, and gives up on trying to patch up the old one once more. When this happens, the Model Crisis step is over and the next step, Model Revolution, had begun.

A central hypothesis of Thwink.org is that the model that civilization uses to run itself is in the Model Crisis step of the Kuhn Cycle, because the model is no longer capable of running civilization well. This explains the title of a book in progress, A Model in Crisis.

  

The Dueling Loops

The most popular page on the site by a factor of 3. This paper presents a simple model showing why activists have been unable to solve the sustainability problem, and an alternative solution strategy based on high leverage points.

The Phenomenon of Change Resistance

This is the key concept that starts people thwinking, and causes them to explore the rest of the site. The concept is subtle, but has the potential to change the sustainability problem from insolvable to solvable.

The Powell Memo

The most eye popping short read (7 pages) on the site, if you have never heard about it. The memo was written in 1971.

The Dueling Loops Videos

These average 8 minutes. They give a quick introduction to the Dueling Loops model and how it explains the tremendous change resistance to solving the sustainability problem.
 

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