Adding Change Resistance to Integrated Global Models


Thwink.org has prepared a video on how a change resistance subsystem can be added to highly influential integrated models like Climate Interactive's C-ROADS and the Limits to Growth's WORLD3.

The video shows how The Dueling Loops of the Political Powerplace simulation models works. Here's the 2005 paper on that model. Please remember the Dueling Loops model is only an example. It's not a definitive analysis.

The video contains two key diagrams. Here's the first:

A system thinker's view of solving a public interest problem

And here's the second diagram:

Diagram of adding change resistance to integrated world models

Integrated models like C-ROADS and WORLD3 are essentially IPAT equation models. They model that part of the problem well. But they assume a solution has been implemented. Thus these models exclude how the Political System, due to change resistance, can reject or greatly weaken Promoted Solutions, as shown in the lower right diagram. That can be corrected by adding a Change Resistance Subsystem as shown.

The diagram is simplified. As the Change Resistance Subsystem becomes more sophisticated, there will be interactions with the IPAT Integrated Global Model. These arrows are not shown.

Thwink.org has done an extensive root cause analysis on the global environmental sustainability problem as a whole, using the System Improvement Process. The one big problem was decomposed into four subproblems, one of which is change resistance. For a summary of the analysis, please see Summary of Analysis Results.

Several months after this video was created, Thwink.org successfully added a change resistance subsystem to World3. Here are the results.

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