The fundamental thesis of the work at Thwink.org is that the modern environmental movement is mired in the Initial Failure Mode, due to the reasons given in the diagram below. Our work focuses on how to move the movement to the Eventual Success Mode as quickly as possible, so we can solve the sustainability problem before the human system becomes too weakened, distracted and demoralized to solve it.
This is a rather unconventional viewpoint. But if over 30 years of solution failure has occurred, can the environmental movement be anywhere else but in the Initial Failure Mode?
We invite you to explore this site, where you will find much more than an explanation of the above diagram. This is from Chapter 12 of Analytical Activism. To begin your explorations we suggest the FAQ or the Breaking the Thirty Year Deadlock essays.
The Paradox Film
A whole new way of thwinking is necessary, because as the third edition of The Limits to Growth lamented in 2004:
“[The second edition of Limits to Growth] was published in 1992, the year of the global summit on environment and development in Rio de Janeiro. The advent of the summit seemed to prove that global society had decided to deal seriously with the important environmental problems. But we now know that humanity failed to achieve the goals of Rio. The Rio plus 10 conference in Johannesburg in 2002 produced even less; it was almost paralyzed by a variety of ideological and economic disputes, [due to] the efforts of those pursuing their narrow national, corporate, or individual self-interests.
“…humanity has largely squandered the past 30 years…”
In 1972 the first edition of Limits to Growth identified the global environmental sustainability problem. The simulation run above shows approximately what will happen if business continues as usual. The book became an international best seller and brought the problem to the world's attention. Ever since then, millions of dedicated environmentalist's have been trying to solve the problem.
Why is this? We hypothesize a deceptively simple reason. It's the same reason why science was unable to advance much at all before invention of the Scientific Method in the 17th century. It's the same reason why businesses were unable to run efficiently before double entry accounting was invented in the 15th century. The reason is sustainability problem solvers have not yet adopted a process that fits the problem.
Every field needs the right foundational process or theory to solve its central problems. Without the process of the Scientific Method, scientists would still be alchemists. Without the process of double entry accounting, business managers would still be bumbling around in the stone age trying to keep track of their profits, and the modern corporation would probably have never come into existence. Without a process that fits the sustainability problem, environmentalists have been trying one intuitive trial-and-error solution after another. Despite heroic and sometimes brilliant effort, they have made no more than a negligible difference on the global trend of the sustainability problem, as the Ecological Footprint below shows.
The Ecological Footprint graph measures how many planets it would take to support our environmental impact. The data shows Homo sapiens entered overshoot approximately in the 1980s, and in 2003 hit about 25% overshoot.
Starting in 1961, the year before Silent Spring was published, the curve has been as unstoppable as an elephant. The efforts of the environmental movement have had no more than a negligible impact. Why is this? Why is the system so strongly resisting change?
But there is a better way. It is the same path that science went down 400 years ago and business chose 600 years ago. They adopted a process that fits the problem.
If this argument appears promising, then you may be interested in taking a look at Cracking the Mystery of the Progressive Paradox. The two hour film (in high definition and chock full of serious facts, tools, and insights) explores a new strategy for analyzing and solving not only the sustainability problem, but all social problems whose solution would benefit the common good.
In a nutshell, this approach uses a custom process designed from scratch to fit the problem. The process is used to find the root cause of systemic change resistance, and then to find the high leverage points that problem solvers can push on to resolve the root cause. Of interest is the high leverage points have never been tried, because activists have been pushing on a low leverage point that is intuitively attractive and should work. But it has not.
Three months in production, Cracking the Mystery of the Progressive Paradox is the best in-depth visual introduction to the many novel ideas at Thwink.org, especially the concept of a meta analysis. It's the perfect way to turn your colleagues on to a whole new way of thwinking. Download it, watch it on your laptop during a long lunch, and show it around at your next meeting.
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them."
Albert Einstein (unsourced attribution)
No Simple Answer
Thwink.org does not have a simple answer to how to solve the global environmental sustainability problem. However, if you are one of the few who realizes there is rarely a simple solution to a complex problem, then this may be the website for you.
Robert Gowans of Tyresö, Sweden has been kind enough to summarize the Thwink message in a few paragraphs:
Rarely can a complex new concept be stated briefly. For example, Darwin's The Origin of Species ran over 600 pages. Today's high school biology textbooks describe the theory of evolution in a few short paragraphs.
The Thwink method of solving the global sustainability problem is novel, complex, non-intuitive and has its roots in emerging scientific and business disciplines and tools such as systems thinking, memetics and dynamic modeling. Beyond sustainability, the greatest challenge mankind has ever faced, the Thwink method may be able to solve other complex human problems that have plagued mankind such as poverty and war. The Thwink method is truly a paradigm shift.
The core of the approach is the process must fit the problem, systemic change resistance is the crux of most difficult social problems, and the only reliable way to diagnose the root cause of complex social system problems and find the high leverage points necessary to resolve the root cause is simulation modeling.
However, whilst the Thwink method offers great hope to humanity, the paradigm shift it represents also makes it a very hard sell.
If you find these ideas of interest, then here is a time efficient way to evaluate the material at Thwink.org:
1. Read the Dueling Loops paper. This has opened more eyes than anything else on the entire site.
2. Watch the Progressive Paradox video.
3. Read the Dueling Loops book.
4. If you want a lot more all in one place, read the Analytical Activism book.
Then, if you find yourself wanting to help spread this new paradigm, here's how you can help:
1. Give a copy of the Progressive Paradox to friends and colleagues. Most people don't read much anymore. They watch TV, films, and videos, and listen to the radio and podcasts for over 90% of their new information.
2. Do the same with the Dueling Loops paper, for the very few you know who still read.
3. Think of an organization you know that would do a great job of implementing one or more of the ideas you found at Thwink.org. Contact them, sit down with one person there, and personally tell them what that one idea is all about.
Little is going to change until respected, sound organizations who are looking for a better way... find it.
